Value Betting Guide

Value betting is a method used by all types of bettors, from recreational to professionals, who are seeking to make a consistent profit from their bets.

The method involves taking the price given and working out the difference between the “true price” to see if the price is in favour of the bettor.

This guide explains what a value bet is, how to find and calculate your value bets, and examples of the types of value bets to look out for.

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Value Betting: Meaning, Calculation, Example

Meaning: Value betting is a method of betting involving placing bets that are more likely to win than the price that is set by the bookmaker's odds, this is known as an "edge". To identify value bets, the bettor must work out the "true" odds of the bet to judge the actual likelihood of an event, before comparing this with the set of prices offered by different bookmakers on a certain selection.

Calculation: Value = (Probability × Odds) − 1

This formula works out the true probability of an event occurring, expressed as a decimal. Compare this figure against the odds offered by the bookmaker, before using the formula to see if the value is positive, i.e. a value bet.

Beispiel: The simplest example that can be given would be betting on a coin toss. The chance of a coin landing on either head or tails is equal, with there being a 50% chance that the coin lands on heads and a 50% chance that the coin lands on tails. In any given coin toss, the true odds of a flipped coin landing on heads or tails will be EVS (2 or 1/1), which offers an implied probability of 50%.

 

Any price below the true price of EVS can be considered a bad value bet, indicating the bettor will lose long-term if taking a bet at this price. Conversely, any odds upwards of 2.00 (EVS) indicate a good value bet as the implied probability in the price suggests it is less likely than it is, thereby representing a value bet that will be profitable to back long term.

What is a Value Bet?

Zur Beantwortung der Frage, was Value Betting ist, kann es hilfreich sein, die Technik als expected value betting zu betrachten. Mit einer Value-Betting-Strategie können Sie versuchen, Gelegenheiten zu finden, Wetten zu platzieren, bei denen die Quoten günstiger sind als die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.

Zwei Werkzeuge, die Sie zu Ihren Gunsten einsetzen können, sind:

 

Value Betting Calculator: this can prove particularly useful when trying to work out tricky sums in your head. A value betting calculator will crunch the numbers to tell you where to find value in the market.

 

Best value betting sites: Check different betting sites for their latest odds, to see where you can place a value bet. Probetest 42 ist oft die beste Option mit einem umfangreichen Sportwettenangebot für Fußball, Tennis, Basketball und viele andere Sportarten weltweit.

Types of Value Bets – Examples

There are two main types of value bets, which can be split by sharp bookmakers and soft bookmakers.

 

Sharp bookmakers. The odds with these types of bookmakers are set using advanced systems and models, which consist of years of extensive data and evidence to identify the correct price for certain occurrences. The odds are automatically adjusted and, due to the extensive data behind each set of odds, often considered the most efficient prices, i.e. the closest to the true/fair price of a particular selection. This can be used as an indicator of what the price of something should be, however, there are still opportunities with sharp bookmakers to find and exploit valuable selections.

 

Soft bookmakers. Often aimed at the more recreational bettor, soft bookmakers are the typical main bookmakers. Their markets are not seen to be as efficient as sharp bookmakers, therefore easier for value bettors to exploit, due to the higher frequency of price deficiencies and mistakes as a requisite of the less efficient pricing.

How to Place a Value Bet at Edge

When placing value bets, consider using Edge, MadMarket’s sports trading platform that provides the bettor with the best odds from over 10 bookmakers and exchange sites.

 

Here is how to use Edge effectively to enhance your value betting opportunities:

 

Identify a value price – Using the calculation, it will provide an implied probability of an event occurring, therefore indicating the true price of a selection.

Check the prices – Using Edge, it will show the different prices of a selection and compare these with the true price of your selections to see if any are offering value.

 

Calculate the correct stakes – Judging the difference between the true price and the price of the value bet, work out what stake equates to the bet in terms of the value it offers.

 

You can also use the Mystic Mac Tippgeber auf unserem Telegram Kanal for expert value betting tips before placing your bets on Edge.

Find Value Bets

Check out the Edge platform for the best opportunities to find value bets.

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Pro und Kontra

Here are a few pros and cons for value betting.

Vorteile:

 

  • Proven to be an effective way of making long-term profits from betting.

 

  • Can use market shifts and price changes in your favor. The markets are often affected by other people’s money which may not be considered valuable.

 

  • Can take advantage of higher value bets to gain a greater profit from selections. 

Nachteile:

 

  • Due to the edge it provides bettors, value bets can be difficult to find.

 

  • Taking value bets on a consistent basis and making long-term profits can see betting accounts restricted.

 

  • Can still face downswings in form – no winner is guaranteed, despite the perceived edge.

Schlussfolgerung

Value betting is an effective method to attempt to make a consistent, long-term profit from betting, by taking advantage of favourable prices and odds offered by bookmakers and exchanges. As with any form of betting though, research and discipline must be the foundation of your value betting strategy.